BTC price models hint at $130K target after 2024 Bitcoin halving

Bitcoin (BTC) is destined to hit $128,000 or more by the end of 2025, multiple analytics models suggest.

Uploading his latest BTC price estimates to X (formerly Twitter) on Oct. 17, popular trader and analyst CryptoCon deduced a two-year target of around $130,000.

Multiple BTC price forecasts converge on $130,000 in 2025

Bitcoin market participants are diverging over how BTC price behavior will respond to next year’s block subsidy halving, but for CryptoCon, the long-term roadmap is looking firmly bullish.

In an update for various models charting both Bitcoin price cycles and their highs and lows, the analyst reiterated that the area around $130,000 was fast becoming a magnet.

“I’ve been doing a lot of Bitcoin cycle top experiments lately, and I keep seeing right around the same price… 130k,” he summarized.

An accompanying chart highlighted so-called “early” tops in each price cycle, along with the actual cycle top constituting a new all-time high.

The early tops, on average, occur three weeks on either side of July 9, CryptoCon explained. The new all-time highs come three weeks on either side of Nov. 28 — already a popular phenomenon that Cointelegraph reported on last month.

The timing for these events comes from plotting simple diagonal trendlines from the first early top.

“Doing this has found the the price of the last two cycle tops exactly, and with our trend from last cycle, gives us a price of about 138k,” the X post continued.

“I am prepared for lower prices, but the stars are aligning at 130k for Bitcoin this cycle!”

Per model timing, 2025 should be the year that the next cycle top occurs, just under twice the current record set in 2021.

“History favors the bears”

Four-year halving cycles, meanwhile, form a guide for many well-known Bitcoin market commentators.

Related: Mining BTC is harder than ever — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Among them is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who continues to stress that the prehalving year 2023 could bring about some new local lows before the bull market attains full force. 

#BTC

5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving

1. Pre-Halving period

If a deeper retrace is going to occur, it will likely be over the next 140 days or so (orange)

In fact, $BTC retraced -24% in 2015 and -38% in 2019 at this same point in the cycle (i.e. ~200 days before the Halving)… pic.twitter.com/r1dAWBJXyw

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 6, 2023

Previously, he warned that the $32,000 highs seen earlier this year could end up printing a double-top structure, helping fuel a protracted BTC price downturn next. 

“At this same point in the cycle (~180 days before the Halving)… BTC retraced -25% in 2015/2016 and -38% in 2019,” one of his latest X posts reads.

“Only question is: does history repeat? Or does 2023 generate something completely different? I’m a Macro Bull but history favours Bears.” 

Rekt Capital added that any new lows “should be treated as an opportunity for re-accumulation.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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